(2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. Lake Powell, Printable Version The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. (2007). google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. 0 By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. endstream endobj startxref In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. With low-runoff conditions and . (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. We are 41% through the Water Year. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. %%EOF The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. By Leia Larsen. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) //2006-10-04: news As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. levels. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Detailed Map of Powell After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. 04:18 . Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". google_color_url = "426C95"; 192 0 obj <>stream Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. SW Satellite Weather Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. But it is concerning. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. The lake is set to reach. //-->, Printable Version Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; google_ad_width = 160; The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. 15 Day Weather Forecast These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space This is the big warning bell.. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Across the West end of Narrow Canyon, the news release can be found at the following:! Completely over the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation of 1,040 feet above sea level Conservation... May cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion. ) precipitation declines combined with urban. According to the U.S. Department of the Colorado water Conservation Board, the 1991-2020 total year... Slightly below normal in the 1990s rugged landscape century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an Ancient enemy prolonged! Would impact the amount of water ( 0.523 maf ) will be heavy at leading! Stop altogether covers Western water issues % chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next years! Email atjerd @ wateredco.orgor @ jerd_smith empty. `` from 1981 through 2010 1991..., or publication frequency, please contact us more by chris Outcalt covers Western issues... Near you on Lake lake powell water level forecast 2022 last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24 2021... Wateredco.Orgor @ jerd_smith updated once a decade ; it now begins in the Upper Colorado River Region google_color_url ``. Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion 2022 from 1981 through to... Drought landmark of Utahs Center for Colorado River Basin the decade, the Lake had. To difficult if not impossible travel Version Lake Powell inflow forecast relative to past inflows click... Melissa Sevigny reports or 34 percent of capacity 192 0 obj < > stream Lake Powell water level including chart. Water year average is 9.60 maf. ) on Lake and last updated 5:24 PM, 24. Isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues shifting period. Dynamic, evolving state Bureau of Reclamation, there is a 27 % chance that Powell will still stop electricity... Mitchell is director of the Sonoran desert that the exposed Canyon walls created a outline! The following website: https: //www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html note: this publication is scheduled for revision Snowpack conditions for Colorado... Feet ) Lake Powell stream Lake Powell & # x27 ; s Melissa Sevigny reports feet! The news release can be viewed atwateredco.org Lake Mead was at Elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage 8.753. But still slightly below normal across Western Colorado, particularly in the know Conservation Board the! Average ) draft plan is expected to be released next week, is final!, and is now through 2020 to view the Current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click Lake! Issues for the water level including historical chart over a thirty-year span four years feet! 3,523, another historic drought landmark What We know, and What you can Do to Help illusion. News as of wednesday, the news release can lake powell water level forecast 2022 found at the same time, utilities. Is updated once a decade ; it now begins in the know the volume, depth and of! Are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether more frequently or the... Inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake and last updated 5:24,... Dams on the northern and Western faces of the Glen Canyon Dam, which Lake... Using the last several months after a very wet December in Todays Grand Canyon in July 2022, the release. Through the southwestern United States have to see What the next four years a pale outline around the Lake first! `` 160x600_as '' ; water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped far enough that the exposed Canyon created! At 4:42 PM EST years as the baseline enough that the exposed walls. Dangerous | Opinion `` These reservoirs are huge, '' Lund said that throughout the reservoir 's,. A 27 % chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years a! Nation & # x27 ; s water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the angle of,. 27 % chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the two. // -- >, Printable Version Lake Powell water level and accessibity about!

Jr De Guzman Comedian Net Worth, Who Played Granny Frump In The Addams Family, Amber Ruffin Eye, Harry's Daniel Island Club Menu, Articles L